At McGlone's $10,000, Nearly 3 in 4 Bitcoin Would Sit at a Loss
Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone says bitcoin could revert to $10,000 if US stocks fall 20%. Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer says a new bull market could be underway. Our node can't settle that, but it can show how much of the supply would be underwater at each price they and their critics mention.
Two macro strategists at major financial firms looked at bitcoin on the same day, October 16, and came away with opposite calls. McGlone, a senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, wrote that he sees bitcoin "on track toward support around $10,000, notably if the US stock market has a 20% drawdown" [1]. That evening, Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macro, posted that "a new 4-year cycle bull market could be underway, based on its power law patterns" [2].
Why it matters: a price is just a number until you know how many coins changed hands above it. That is something we can measure from the chain, without taking a side.
The bear case and the bull case
Timmer's chart, with data as of October 11, puts his power law support line at $56,488 and the last cycle peak at $122,765 on a weekly basis [2]. "There doesn't seem to be a narrative, but then again, bull markets rarely start with one," he added [2].
The sharpest pushback came from neither of them. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, quoted McGlone's post later that day: even if all the money that went into ETFs and treasury companies left, "on-chain cost basis still puts the floor near $30k," and $10,000 would mean an MVRV of 0.2 against a historical worst of 0.6 [3].
How we measured it
We recalculated the cost distribution of the entire supply from our UTXO set snapshot at block 971,930, mined at 01:43 UTC on October 18, 2026 [6]. Each coin is assigned the daily closing price of the day it last moved. That gives a curve of how much supply sits above any given price.
We priced it at the October 18 close, the snapshot's own day: $82,116. At that price, 68.97% of the evaluable supply was in profit. In our June 14 snapshot, with bitcoin at $65,713, it was 53.61% [6][7]. The base is 20,009,289 BTC; the remaining 0.45% can't be evaluated [6].
The supply in loss at each price
| Price | Supply in loss, Oct 18, 2026 | Jun 14, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| $10,000 | 74.38% (14,883,598 BTC) | 73.81% |
| $20,000 | 69.43% (13,891,551 BTC) | 68.48% |
| $30,000 | 65.17% (13,039,401 BTC) | 63.79% |
| $50,000 | 58.83% (11,771,412 BTC) | 56.69% |
| $60,000 | 56.12% (11,229,152 BTC) | 53.94% |
At McGlone's $10,000, about 74.4% of the supply would be at a loss. At Ju's $30,000 floor, about 65.2%. Timmer's $56,488 support sits between our $50,000 and $60,000 rows, where the figure is 58.8% and 56.1% [6].
About 14.88 million BTC would be at a loss at $10,000, according to our October 18, 2026 snapshot [6].
The shape of the curve is the real story. Think of a bookshelf with most of the weight on the top shelves. The first $22,100 of a hypothetical drop, from $82,116 to $60,000, would push about 25 more percentage points of supply underwater. The next $50,000, all the way to $10,000, would add only about 18 [6]. In other words, more than half the supply last moved above $60,000.
Who would carry the losses
Splitting holders into short-term (STH, coins that moved in the last 155 days) and long-term (LTH), the picture shifts with the price. At $60,000, 18.13 points of the loss would belong to STH coins and 37.99 to LTH coins. At $10,000, it's 18.45 and 55.93 [6].
Almost every short-term coin already has a cost basis above $60,000 [6]. Below that level, nearly all of the additional loss would land on long-term holders, the group Ju has in mind when he says 2019 buyers would have to panic [3].
Realized price, the average cost basis, tells the same story:
- STH: $74,602 (MVRV 1.10), up from $73,401 (MVRV 0.90) in June [6][7].
- LTH: $49,262 (MVRV 1.67) [6].
- Whole supply: $53,916 (MVRV 1.52) [6].
The day-to-day MVRV, at the current price, is among the key indicators on our Cycle page.
On our numbers, $10,000 works out to an MVRV of 0.19, close to Ju's 0.2, and his own $30,000 floor to 0.56 [3][6]. The 0.6 historical low is CryptoQuant's figure under its own method; we haven't recalculated it.
Below every low in our series
At $10,000, only about 25.6% of the evaluable supply would remain in profit [6]. Our weekly series, which starts in January 2018, has never gone that low. Its lowest readings were 39.10% on December 15, 2018, 42.39% on March 12, 2020, and 44.27% on November 21, 2022. In 2026, the low was 49.89%, on June 7; the series has no data between June 14 and October 18 [7].
Caveats
- Not a forecast. The table shows how much supply would be at a loss at each price, not whether or when bitcoin gets there. It isn't investment advice.
- The curve is approximate. It is built from price bins about 1.16% wide and carries a margin of about ±0.3 percentage points. The 68.97% in profit at the snapshot is exact [6].
- Price date. The in-profit share and MVRV figures use the October 18 close of $82,116, the snapshot's own day [6].
- Recent blocks. Blocks 971,713 to 971,930, holding 0.95% of the supply, are dated by their real header time rather than interpolated, a difference of about a day at most [6].
- Cost basis means last move. It isn't what any person paid. A coin moved between two wallets of the same owner gets a new cost, and lost coins count like any other.
- Our public charts now show this snapshot. Since October 19, our supply in loss, supply in profit and STH and LTH realized price charts use the October 18 snapshot, and the figures in this article come from it.
McGlone, for his part, has put a date on it. When Willy Woo pushed back, he replied that they should "check in a year from now," according to Bitcoin.com News [4].
See the full cost distribution, price by price, in our URPD chart, and the short- and long-term cost basis in our STH and LTH realized price chart. Both come from our own node.
Sources
Source type in parentheses. Times in UTC.
- Mike McGlone (Bloomberg Intelligence), post on X, October 16, 2026, 12:54. Preview of "A Bitcoin $10,000 Reversion Path Could Trigger Tumbling Dominoes." (Primary, statement)
- Jurrien Timmer (Fidelity), post on X, October 16, 2026, 21:56, with the chart "Bitcoin's Support & Resistance," data as of October 11: $56,488 support line and $122,765 peak. (Primary, statement)
- Ki Young Ju (CryptoQuant), reply to McGlone on X, October 16, 2026, 21:13. (Primary, statement)
- Bitcoin.com News, Shiraz Jagati, Bloomberg Sees Bitcoin Price at $10K and Cryptoquant's CEO Doesn't Agree, October 17, 2026. McGlone's April remarks on $75,000 and his reply to Willy Woo. (Secondary, press)
- CoinDesk, Olivier Acuna, Bloomberg strategist doubles down on $10,000 bitcoin call, March 11, 2026. (Secondary, press)
- NodeWitness, cost distribution and realized price recalculated from the UTXO set snapshot at block 971,930 (October 18, 2026, 01:43 UTC), priced at the October 18 close ($82,116). Loaded on our public charts since October 19. (Primary, own data)
- NodeWitness, snapshot at block 953,568 (June 14, 2026, price $65,713) and weekly supply-in-profit series since January 2018, in our supply in profit chart. (Primary, own data)
More in Cycle and valuation
Last updated: October 19, 2026