The current Bitcoin cycle is on day 924 since the April 20, 2024 halving (October 31, 2026 close): price is 1.19× the halving-day close of $64,992.
Cumulative return for Bitcoin's 4 known cycles, all lined up from the same starting point -- the halving, or optionally each cycle's own high or low -- so wildly different starting prices ($12 in 2012 vs. over $100,000 in 2024) land on one readable scale. With only 4 cycles on record, treat this as historical texture, not a Score signal.
“Current Bitcoin cycle: day 925 since the 20 Apr 2024 halving, with price at 1.21× that day's close, 1 Nov 2026 close.” NodeWitness, https://nodewitness.com/en/charts/bitcoin-cycle-comparison-chart/
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Each cycle is normalized to a MULTIPLE of its starting price, not a linear percentage, and the Y axis is logarithmic -- both are load-bearing. The 2012-2016 cycle ran up more than 9,000%; on a linear scale that single run swamps every other cycle into an unreadable flat line even with the others unchecked. Multiple-of-start plus a log axis is the only combination where all four stay legible at once.
Daily BTC/USD price comes from Blockchain.info (free, no key, full history back to 2010) -- needed because the first halving (Nov 28, 2012) predates where the Coin Metrics history that powers the rest of the site actually starts, which would otherwise leave a gap right at the beginning of cycle 1. The 3 past halving dates are fixed; a "high" or "low" starting point instead is found by locating the highest price observed in that cycle's own series (or the lowest one after that high).
With only 3 completed cycles and a 4th still running, any pattern that looks like it's "repeating" rests on a sample far too small to be a reliable signal -- which is exactly why this comparison is deliberately kept out of the Score: deriving a rule from the same 3-4 cycles you'd be trying to predict adds nothing new. Read it as perspective, never as a forecast or financial advice.
The NodeWitness cycle Score doesn't use this comparison as an input -- a "cycle clock" built from the average length of past cycles was evaluated on purpose and dropped for the same circularity reason explained above.
If you wonder whether the pattern still holds, we look at it in is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle dead? and in Bitcoin tops and bottoms: the repeating pattern. The phase the market was in at each stretch of each cycle is in the Score history since 2018.