The current Bitcoin 2-Year MA Multiplier is 0.92 (October 18, 2026 close): price at $82,116, below its 730-day average of $89,162.
Two lines under the price: the average of the last 730 daily closes, and that average times five. Price has spent most of its history between them. What this page tracks is the exits: when price closed below the average, when it closed above five times it, and how long each stretch lasted.
“Bitcoin 2-Year MA Multiplier: 0.92, with price at $82,116 against a 730-day average of $89,162, 18 Oct 2026 close.” NodeWitness, https://nodewitness.com/en/charts/bitcoin-2-year-ma-multiplier-chart/
Current streak: 263 consecutive daily closes below the 2-year MA (since 29 Jan 2026, as of the 18 Oct 2026 close). It is the 3rd longest since 2012, after 2022-23 (533 days) and 2014-15 (358 days).
Picture a dog on a retractable leash. The 2-year average is the owner, walking slowly because two years of prices drag on every step; price is the dog, running ahead or lagging behind. The ratio panel measures how much leash is out. In 2013 the dog got 17.6 times ahead, in 2017 9.8, in 2021 4.9 and in 2024 2.5. The 5× line comes from the early cycles; in the last two, the leash never stretched that far.
Top panel: the green line is the 2-year average and the red one five times it. Shaded stretches are the days price closed below green or above red. Bottom panel: price divided by the average, with 1 and 5 marked. The table lists every stretch of seven days or more.
The point of a 730-day window is that it barely notices a month of euphoria or panic, so stretches below the average tend to last: 358 days from December 2014 to December 2015, 172 from November 2018 to May 2019, 533 from May 2022 to October 2023. March and April 2020 were the exception, three short dips with the longest at 25 days.
Philip Swift built it in July 2017 as the “Bitcoin Investor Tool” and publishes it on Look Into Bitcoin, pitched at long-term investors [1]. Its first out-of-sample test came within months: from 16 Nov 2017 to 15 Jan 2018 price closed above five times the average every single day, and the ratio peaked at 9.81 on 16 Dec 2017, the cycle’s highest close.
From then to 17 Oct 2026, it didn’t touch the upper line again. The ratio topped out at 4.88 in 2021 (21 Feb) and at 2.48 in the following cycle (13 Mar 2024); our series’ highest close, $124,777 on 6 Oct 2025, came with price at 1.63 times the average. The lower line has held up better as a description: the lows of January 2015, December 2018, November 2022 and June 2026 all came with price below the 2-year average.
Stretches of at least 7 consecutive days, most recent first. Computed from the chart's series every time the page loads.
We start from our USD daily close series, which begins on 17 Aug 2010 [2]. The 2-year average is the simple mean of the last 730 closes; the upper line is that average times five, as in the original definition [1]; the ratio is the day’s close divided by the average. The average is strict, with no value until 730 consecutive closes exist, so the first one is from 15 Aug 2012.
A day counts as “below the average” if its close is lower than that day’s average, and as “above 5×” if it is higher than five times the average. The table groups consecutive days into stretches and only lists those of seven days or more; the chart shows all of them. Today only counts once it has closed.
We compared our series with a public reference using the same source and definition [3]: our 2-year average for 17 Oct 2026 is $89,143 and the reference shows $89,139 with the next day's close. The ratio's peak in the 2021 cycle is 4.88 (21 Feb 2021), consistent with the “about 4.9” another reference publishes [4].
A two-year window is late by design. After the November 2021 top the average kept rising until 15 Nov 2022, almost at the bear-market low, then fell until 4 Jan 2024, with price already recovering. The 5× multiple is a fixed number chosen on 2012–2017 data, and in the two cycles since, up to 17 Oct 2026, price didn’t reach it. Stretches that lined up with past bottoms and tops say nothing about what comes next. This page describes the series; it is not investment advice.
The one-paragraph definition is in the glossary. Why no valuation metric works on its own is the subject of Bitcoin valuation without the hype, and the pattern that repeats at each turn is in Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms. For where it sits today next to ten other indicators, see Bitcoin cycle top and bottom indicators today.
That the day’s close is lower than the mean of the last 730 closes. Put another way, someone who had bought the same amount of bitcoin every day for those two years would be sitting on a loss. Up to 18 Oct 2026 that had been the case on 28% of days since August 2012.
Nobody knows for sure. What the data shows is that each cycle has stretched less from its long-term average, with the ratio peaking at 17.6 in 2013, 9.8 in 2017, 4.9 in 2021 and 2.5 in 2024. A fixed line calibrated on the early cycles sits further out of reach each time.
Both divide price by a moving average, over very different horizons. The Mayer Multiple uses 200 days and swings far more; the 2-Year MA Multiplier uses 730 and adds a second line at five times the average.
Its creator pitches it at long-term investors. We only describe where price has been relative to the two lines; a stretch that lined up with a past bottom or top says nothing about what comes next. It is not investment advice.
The rest of the cycle metrics are on Cycle & Score.