Every bitcoin carries an on-chain cost: the price on the day it last moved. When the market trades below that cost, the coin is in loss. Pick any price and this page adds up how much of the supply has its cost above it. With the UTXO set snapshot of 18 Oct 2026 (block 971,930), 58.83% of the evaluable supply would be in loss at $50,000, and 74.38% at $10,000. Applied to the latest close (18 Oct 2026, $82,116), the same snapshot leaves 31.23% in loss.
“31.2% of bitcoin supply was in loss at a $82,116 close (UTXO set snapshot of 18 Oct 2026, block 971,930).” NodeWitness, https://nodewitness.com/en/charts/bitcoin-supply-in-loss-by-price-chart/
Data: UTXO set snapshot of 18/10/2026 (block 971,930). Closing price that day: $82,116.
From the UTXO set snapshot of 18/10/2026 (block 971,930). Percentages of the evaluable supply.
| Price | % in loss | BTC in loss | of which STH | of which LTH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $10,000 | 74.38% | 14,883,598 | 18.45% | 55.93% |
| $20,000 | 69.43% | 13,891,551 | 18.45% | 50.98% |
| $30,000 | 65.17% | 13,039,401 | 18.45% | 46.72% |
| $40,000 | 61.82% | 12,369,499 | 18.45% | 43.37% |
| $50,000 | 58.83% | 11,771,412 | 18.45% | 40.38% |
| $60,000 | 56.12% | 11,229,152 | 18.13% | 37.99% |
| $70,000 | 42.51% | 8,506,247 | 11.68% | 30.83% |
| $80,000 | 34.45% | 6,892,337 | 7.72% | 26.73% |
| $100,000 | 12.19% | 2,438,572 | 0.00% | 12.19% |
| $120,000 | 0.65% | 129,756 | 0.00% | 0.65% |
| $150,000 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
Picture every bitcoin as a climber resting on a mountain at the altitude of its cost: a coin that last moved at $30,000 rests at the 30,000 mark. Choosing a price sets the snow line. Everyone resting above it moved their coins at a higher price, so they’re in loss. The curve counts the climbers above every possible snow line, split into newcomers (short-term holders, under 155 days) and veterans (long-term holders), who usually rest at very different heights. It’s a headcount taken on the snapshot date, though, and people have moved since.
Start with the bold data line: it names the UTXO set snapshot every figure on the page comes from. Then type a price, drag the slider or click on the curve. The sentence underneath gives the share of the evaluable supply with a cost above that price, how many BTC that is, and how many points belong to short- and long-term holders.
Read the curve from left to right: the higher the price, the less supply sits above it, down to zero at the highest price any coin has moved at. Where the curve drops steeply, a lot of supply has its cost in that range; where it runs almost flat, very little does. In the 18 Oct 2026 snapshot, 43.9% of the evaluable supply had its cost between $60,000 and $100,000, against 18.3% between $10,000 and $60,000.
The lower panels answer a different question: holding your chosen price fixed, how much supply would have been in loss on each weekly snapshot since 2018, on that date’s cost basis. Underneath is the close on each snapshot day, so you can see when the market was above or below your price.
The curve is the URPD added up from the top. The URPD splits supply by the price at which each coin last moved; Renato Shirakashi introduced it at Glassnode in April 2020, and Glassnode’s documentation carries the standard definition [1]. Supply in loss at the day’s own price is one of the most watched on-chain metrics. What this page adds is letting you pick the price instead of taking the market’s.
Measured at each day’s own price, supply in loss climbs through bear markets and all but vanishes at the highs. Across the 441 snapshots from 12 Jan 2018 to 14 Jun 2026, the peak was 60.40% on 15 Dec 2018, with the close at $3,232; at the 2020 and 2022 lows it reached 55.76% (12 Mar 2020) and 55.30% (21 Nov 2022). The highs show the opposite: on 21 Feb 2021 just 0.05% was in loss, and on 5 Oct 2025, 0.41%, all of it short-term. In the 14 Jun 2026 snapshot, with the close at $65,713, it was 46.11%.
We start from the same weekly UTXO set snapshot as the URPD [1]: the bitcoin in each block carries the closing price of the day that block was mined, from our Blockchain.com daily series [2], grouped into log bands 1.16% wide. For a price X we add up everything with a cost above X, splitting the band that contains X linearly on a log scale.
The denominator is the evaluable supply: the total minus bitcoin with no assignable date. Coins that last moved before 18 Aug 2010, when there was no market price yet, count at zero cost and are never in loss. The short- and long-term points are shares of that same total, so they add up to the headline figure. It is the same method as the daily approximation of the supply in profit.
With the 14 Jun 2026 snapshot, $10,000 gives 73.81% of the evaluable supply in loss and $60,000 gives 53.94%: the same figures we published from that snapshot in our analysis of McGlone's $10,000 call, computed separately from the full UTXO set. At each snapshot's own close, the result differs from the exact percentage in loss on the supply-in-profit chart, which is computed block by block without bands, by 0.3 points on average across the 441 weekly snapshots from 12 Jan 2018 to 14 Jun 2026 (1.3 at most).
It’s a snapshot: it tells you how much supply would be in loss if the price were X, on that day’s cost basis. If the price really got to X, coins would move along the way and the picture would change. The cost is the price on the day each output was created, not what anyone paid: a coin moved between wallets of the same owner, or between exchanges, gets a fresh cost even though nobody sold. And an old snapshot set against today’s price is an approximation, since it pairs one date’s costs with another date’s price. It is not a forecast or investment advice.
Short definitions of a UTXO set snapshot, the URPD and supply in profit and loss are in the glossary.
That the market price is below the price on the day the coin last moved on-chain. It is an on-chain cost, not what the owner paid: the chain doesn’t say who owns each coin or what they paid for it off-chain.
On the UTXO set snapshot of 18 Oct 2026, 58.83% of the evaluable supply. The table on this page covers round prices from $10,000 to $150,000, and the price box handles anything from $100 to $1,000,000.
Because they come from a full snapshot of our node’s UTXO set, taken weekly, and the page uses the latest one loaded. Right now that is the 18 Oct 2026 snapshot (block 971,930). If it is more than three weeks old the page says so, and as soon as a new one comes in every figure is recalculated.
No. It shows where coins’ costs sit, not what their owners will do. If price really fell, coins would move along the way and the distribution would change. We show it as descriptive data, not investment advice.
The supply-in-profit chart gives each day’s figure at that day’s price, computed block by block. This page uses the same cost rule but lets you choose the price, working from the weekly snapshot grouped into bands. At each snapshot’s own price the two differ by 0.3 points on average.
How supply splits across holders and age, on the supply and holders page.