As of the most recent snapshot (October 25, 2026, block 973,007), realized price (the average cost basis of every coin) is $51k, and the market price stood at 1.58x that level (MVRV).
Snapshot computed directly from our own Bitcoin node — not a third-party API.
“Bitcoin realized price: $50,983 (UTXO set snapshot of 25 Oct 2026, block 973,007).” NodeWitness, https://nodewitness.com/en/charts/bitcoin-realized-price-chart/
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One point per weekly snapshot of the full UTXO set, since January 2018. MVRV and NUPL are the same signal on two scales (NUPL = 1 − 1/MVRV): above 1x, or above 0%, the average holder is in unrealized profit. The axis is time-based, so a week without a snapshot shows up as a gap instead of being covered.
Two lines: market price, and realized price, the average price at which every coin last moved. The gap is the average holder’s cushion of unrealized profit. A wide gap above means a lot of paper gains and more incentive to sell; as the lines converge, that cushion disappears.
Realized price moves slowly, only changing when coins change hands, which makes it a useful baseline. When market price drops below it, the average holder is underwater.
Because it only reprices when coins move, realized price lags the market badly in fast rallies and holds up in crashes. That lag is the point: it shows what the network as a whole actually paid, not what the last trade said. The table under the chart lists the weekly figures if you need exact values for a given date.
Nic Carter and Antoine Le Calvez proposed realized cap in 2018 as an alternative to market cap. At the 2015, 2018 and 2022 bottoms, price spent weeks to months below realized price. The June 2026 low is the first of the four where it never crossed, which we unpack in our analysis of the 2026 bottom. Whether that says anything about the cycle ahead is an open question.
Realized Price is the average acquisition cost of the whole evaluable supply: the sum of the price each coin had the last time it moved, divided by total supply. MVRV (Market Cap ÷ Realized Cap) compares current market price against that average cost -- above 1x, the average holder is in unrealized profit; below, in unrealized loss. NUPL expresses the same thing as a percentage of the network in unrealized profit (positive) or loss (negative), and is mathematically the same signal as MVRV (NUPL = 1 − 1/MVRV).
Every week we take a full snapshot of the UTXO set from our own Bitcoin Core node -- complete, unpruned, run by us, not a third-party API. The 2018-to-today series has one per week: recent ones are taken live and earlier ones were rebuilt by fixing the UTXO set at that block height. Every evaluable coin gets its last-moved date looked up along with that day's market price, and it all gets summed into the Realized Cap.
Each coin's acquisition price is an estimate with a known bias -- moving funds between wallets of the same owner artificially resets that date, same underlying limitation as any Realized Cap calculation, not specific to this project -- and each UTXO's date is interpolated between known difficulty-epoch boundaries, not exact per block. Supply that couldn't be evaluated (outside the mapped date range or missing a historical price) contributes nothing to the Realized Cap but still counts toward total supply, so the resulting Realized Price is slightly underestimated, never inflated.
Our own series starts in January 2018 and has 449 weekly snapshots, with the odd single-week gap. Before 2018 the orange line on the chart does not exist: rebuilding 2011–2017 is pending and we do not fill it with third-party data. As a check, our MVRV matches Coin Metrics' with a median deviation below 0.2% across these snapshots; the largest differences fall on days of extreme moves, such as 12 March 2020, because each source uses a different price for that day.
This doesn't feed into the NodeWitness cycle Score yet: the Score's MVRV indicator still comes from Coin Metrics, a third-party provider. This series is our own and independent, computed from scratch with our node -- meant to be able to replace that external dependency in the future, it isn't part of the Score's calculation yet.
The market is valuing circulating bitcoin below what it cost on average, so the average holder is at a loss. It happened at the 2015, 2018 and 2022 cycle bottoms, but trading below it doesn’t by itself tell you when a decline ends.
Every provider makes its own choices: which coins to count, which historical prices to use and at what time resolution. Ours comes from weekly UTXO-set snapshots from our own node and excludes supply that can’t be dated, so it can differ somewhat from other sources.
More context in our analysis of the realized price computed from our own node and of why the 2026 low doesn’t look like previous bottoms. To see which phase the Score marked when price touched its cost basis, check the month-by-month Score history.