The main chart combines market-wide metrics (MVRV, exchange balances and flows) from the Coin Metrics Community API with Blockchain.com's price history, so none of it describes individual addresses. The realized price further down is different: it comes from our own node, as do the HODL waves and the wallet-size distribution in Supply and On-chain charts.
Accumulation/distribution zones are an informational heuristic, not a prediction or investment recommendation. They combine 8 smoothed signals (MVRV, net exchange flow, drawdown from 2-year high, price vs. 200-day MA, volume trend, BTC exchange level trend, hash rate, and futures funding rate) and require at least 3 to coincide. They reflect historical patterns — don't decide to buy or sell based solely on this.
BTC/USD Candlestick Chart
Source: Binance (BTCUSDT pair, free, no key). Daily data since August 2017 — no data before that as the pair didn't exist.
Bitcoin cycle comparison
Cumulative return (%) since each halving day, so cycles with very different starting prices ($12 in 2012 vs. ~$65,000 in 2024) can be compared on the same scale. Check or uncheck cycles to compare them.
Realized Price vs. Market Price
Realized price is the average acquisition cost of the whole evaluable supply, computed by summing the price each coin had the last time it moved -- not from a third-party provider, from our own node. When market price falls below it, the average holder is underwater.
Correction depth by year
The biggest drop from a local high to the following low, calculated separately for each year -- to compare how much this year's worst stretch hurt versus previous years.
Total exchange volume
Inflow + outflow of Bitcoin on exchanges, in dollars (not the net flow, which is in the main chart above) -- measures how much activity there is, regardless of whether the net balance rises or falls. 7-day moving average to smooth daily noise.
Market Sentiment
Sentiment can be measured, not just felt. Additional context to the main verdict — when the market is psychologically ahead of (or behind) the fundamentals.
Fear & Greed Index: Aggregated index (volatility, momentum, social media, dominance, surveys) from alternative.me. 0-25 is Extreme Fear, 76-100 is Extreme Greed.
BTC Dominance: % of total crypto market cap represented by BTC. Rising = capital rotating to BTC; falling = risk appetite toward altcoins ('alt season'). Our own daily history, kept since July 1, 2026 (CoinGecko doesn't offer free historical data).
Funding rate (30d): 30-day average of BTCUSDT perpetual futures funding rate (Binance). Negative = shorts pay longs (bearish derivatives); very positive = excessive leveraged bullish exposure. Already part of the weighted verdict.