The current Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is 1.13 (October 18, 2026 close): price at $82,116 against a 200-day average of $72,498.
The Mayer Multiple is price divided by its 200-day average: 1 means price sits right on the average, 2 means double, 0.5 half. Below is the daily series since March 2011, with each calendar year’s high and low.
“Bitcoin Mayer Multiple: 1.13, with price at $82,116 against a 200-day average of $72,498, 18 Oct 2026 close.” NodeWitness, https://nodewitness.com/en/charts/bitcoin-mayer-multiple-chart/
Think of a breakaway rider and the peloton. The 200-day average is the peloton, moving at a pace that changes slowly; price is the breakaway, sometimes far up the road, sometimes dropped behind. The multiple doesn’t tell you how fast the race is going, only the size of the gap. And the big breakaways keep getting shorter: leaving aside 2011, when the market was tiny and the multiple hit 13.56, cycle peaks went from 8.22 in 2013 to 3.72 in 2017, 2.82 in 2021 and 1.85 in 2024.
Top panel: price and its 200-day average on a log scale. Bottom panel: the multiple, also on a log scale so that 2 and 0.5 sit the same distance from 1, with two references: 1, where price equals the average, and 2.4 from the original study. Above the chart you get the latest value and its percentile, the share of days since 2011 with a multiple at or below it.
The two lines tell you different things. Below 1, price is under its roughly seven-month trend, which up to 18 Oct 2026 had been the case on 38% of days. Above 2.4 it had spent only 5% of days, the last on 13 Mar 2021. Bear-market lows have bunched in a narrow band: 0.40 in 2015, 0.51 in 2018, 0.48 in 2022 and, as of 17 Oct 2026, 0.61 in 2026.
The multiple carries Trace Mayer’s name and was spread by The Investor’s Podcast on a page it updated daily [1]. The 2.4 isn’t a technical level. It comes from a simulation on that same page: buy $100 of bitcoin every day since inception, except when the multiple is at or above a threshold, and hold the cash instead. Of the thresholds tested, 2.4 ended up with the most bitcoin.
The page itself warns that bitcoin isn’t normally distributed and that the simulation doesn’t promise future results [1]. Since 2018 the multiple has gone above 2.4 three times: a few days in January 2018, a single day in June 2019 and several stretches between January and March 2021. From 1 Jan 2022 to 17 Oct 2026, it peaked at 1.85, on 13 Mar 2024.
Highest and lowest daily values of each calendar year, newest first. Computed from the chart's series every time the page loads.
We start from our USD daily close series, which begins on 17 Aug 2010 [2]. The average is the simple mean of the last 200 closes and the multiple is the day’s close divided by it, as in the original definition [1]. It’s strict, with no value until 200 consecutive closes exist, so the first is from 4 Mar 2011. The table takes each calendar year’s highest and lowest daily value; 2011 starts in March.
The 2.4 line is the one the original study used; we show it as history, not as a threshold. The percentile ranks the latest value against every day in the series. Today only counts once it has closed.
We compared our series' extremes up to 17 Oct 2026 with a public reference [3]: 0.24 (21 Nov 2011), 8.22 (9 Apr 2013), 0.40 (14 Jan 2015), 3.72 (16 Dec 2017), 0.51 (14 Dec 2018), 2.82 (8 Jan 2021), 0.48 (18 Jun 2022), 1.85 (13 Mar 2024) and 0.61 (5 Feb 2026) match in date and value.
A 200-day average reacts late: in a fast drop the multiple sinks because price falls before the average does, and in a sharp rebound it jumps for the same reason. The 2.4 came out of a simulation on the early cycles, and since peaks have fallen cycle after cycle, a fixed line says less each time. A level lining up with past tops or bottoms says nothing about what comes next. This page describes the series; it is not investment advice.
We use the 200-day average alongside MVRV and the Puell Multiple in Bitcoin valuation without the hype, and explain why none of the three works alone. The short definition is in the glossary. For where the multiple sits today next to ten other cycle indicators, see Bitcoin cycle top and bottom indicators today.
That the closing price equals its average over the last 200 days. Above 1, price is running ahead of that trend; below 1, behind it. Up to 18 Oct 2026 the multiple had been below 1 on 38% of days since March 2011.
It’s the threshold that came out of a simulation by The Investor’s Podcast: buying every day except when the multiple was at or above that level ended, on the data available then, with more bitcoin than any other threshold tested. It’s a result fitted to that past, not a law.
It tells you how far price is from its 200-day average compared with its own history, nothing more. Price has spent months below 1 and kept falling, as in 2022, and months above 2 and kept rising, as in early 2021. We show it as history, not investment advice.
The 200-day average covers about seven months of prices and is the base of the Mayer Multiple. The 200-week average covers almost four years and moves far more slowly. Both have their own chart on NodeWitness.
The rest of the cycle metrics are on Cycle & Score.