Bitcoin cycle phase today

STRONG DIST. MODERATE DIST. NEUTRAL MODERATE ACCUM. STRONG ACCUM. -100 -65 -20 0 +30 +65 +100 -7 NEUTRAL / TRANSITION
Confidence: 100% (data coverage across indicators, not hit probability) · updated 2026-10-25

How to cite this figure: “NodeWitness Cycle Score: -7 on a -100 to +100 scale, phase Neutral / Transition (October 25, 2026).” NodeWitness, https://nodewitness.com/en/bitcoin-cycle-phase/

What has the Score done today?

Nothing worth reporting today. Most days there is no event: about one day in nine produces one, and forcing a daily headline would turn the signal into noise.

The Score has now spent 115 consecutive days in Neutral / Transition, since July 3, 2026.

The most recent notable move was on September 30, 2026: The Score completed 90 consecutive days in Neutral / Transition.

The 3 indicators weighing most right now

  • ▼ MVRV at 1.50 (pushes towards distribution)
  • ▼ BTC-on-exchanges trend (90d) (pushes towards distribution)
  • ▲ Net exchange flow -1411 BTC/day (30d) (pushes towards accumulation)

The five phases of the Score

The Score condenses 10 on-chain and market indicators into a single -100 to +100 reading, classified into five phases:

  • Strong Accumulation (+65 to +100) — historically depressed conditions: broad losses, capitulation, extreme fear. The rarest zone — it has not occurred since 2018.
  • Moderate Accumulation (+30 to +64.9) — indicators lean towards undervaluation and accumulation behaviour. The November 2022 cycle bottom (post-FTX) read +50.8.
  • Neutral / Transition (-20 to +29.9) — mixed signals, no clear regime. Markets spend most of their time here.
  • Moderate Distribution (-20.1 to -64.9) — overvaluation and profit-taking signals dominate. The day before the November 2021 top read -36.5.
  • Strong Distribution (-65.1 to -100) — extreme euphoria across indicators simultaneously.

How this reading is computed

The Score combines 10 indicators — own-node data (holder distribution, hash ribbon), MVRV, Fear & Greed, exchange flows, the 90-day trend of BTC held on exchanges, Puell Multiple, funding rate, Bitcoin dominance, global liquidity and price action — each normalized and weighted. The full list of ingredients, what each one measures and its data source are public in the methodology; the exact weights are not (the public backtest, not blind trust, is what legitimises the reading).

What the Score marked in past cycles

Backtested against 2018-2026 with the same formulas: the day before the November 2021 top it read -36.5 (Moderate Distribution) and the November 2022 bottom read +50.8 (Moderate Accumulation). It has also failed: the 2018 and 2020 bottoms and the October 2025 top stayed in Neutral — every miss is documented, with numbers, in where the Score has failed.

Every month of that backtest has its own page: see the reading the month of the November 2021 top and at the November 2022 bottom, or browse the full Score history since 2018. For the market context of those turns, see Bitcoin tops and bottoms and why the 2026 low looks different.

See how these levels compare with today's Bitcoin price, itself measured against our own node's realized price.

How to use this page

As cycle context, not as a trading signal: the Score situates the market, it does not time entries or exits. Nothing here is financial advice. The full breakdown behind today's reading is on the live cycle Score page.

See the full live analysis — verdict, reasons, DCA simulator and backtest — on the NodeWitness live cycle Score page. Free, no sign-up.

Last updated: October 25, 2026