What does the cycle Score measure?

It condenses 10 on-chain and market indicators (own-node data, MVRV, Fear & Greed, exchange flows, Puell Multiple, and others) into a single -100 (strong distribution) to +100 (strong accumulation) reading, with public methodology and backtest.

Is this financial advice?

No. The Score is informational cycle context computed from historical data; it does not predict prices and past behaviour does not guarantee future results. Any investment decision is solely yours.

Which phase of the cycle is Bitcoin in today?

Q: Which phase of the cycle is Bitcoin in today?

As of 2026-09-10, the NodeWitness cycle Score reads -11 on a -100 to +100 scale: "Neutral / Transition". This page updates continuously from live data.

Confidence: 100% (data coverage across indicators, not hit probability) · updated 2026-09-10

What has the Score done today?

Nothing worth reporting today. Most days there is no event: about one day in nine produces one, and forcing a daily headline would turn the signal into noise.

The Score has now spent 3 consecutive days in Neutral / Transition, since September 7, 2026.

The most recent notable move was on September 7, 2026: The Score moves from one phase to another, something that had not happened since September 2026.

The 3 indicators weighing most right now

▼ BTC-on-exchanges trend (90d) (pushes towards distribution)
▼ Fear & Greed at 66 (Greed) (pushes towards distribution)
▼ MVRV at 1.49 (pushes towards distribution)

The five phases of the Score

The Score condenses 10 on-chain and market indicators into a single -100 to +100 reading, classified into five phases:

Strong Accumulation (+65 to +100) — historically depressed conditions: broad losses, capitulation, extreme fear. The rarest zone — it has not occurred since 2018.
Moderate Accumulation (+30 to +64) — indicators lean towards undervaluation and accumulation behaviour. The November 2022 cycle bottom (post-FTX) read +50.8.
Neutral / Transition (-29 to +29) — mixed signals, no clear regime. Markets spend most of their time here.
Moderate Distribution (-30 to -64) — overvaluation and profit-taking signals dominate. The day before the November 2021 top read -36.7.
Strong Distribution (-65 to -100) — extreme euphoria across indicators simultaneously.

How this reading is computed

The Score combines 10 indicators — own-node data (holder distribution, hash ribbon), MVRV, Fear & Greed, exchange flows, Puell Multiple, funding rate, Bitcoin dominance, global liquidity and price action — each normalized and weighted. The full list of ingredients, what each one measures and its data source are public in the methodology; the exact weights are not (the public backtest, not blind trust, is what legitimises the reading).

What the Score marked in past cycles

Backtested against 2018-2026 with the same formulas: the day before the November 2021 top it read -36.7 (Moderate Distribution) and the November 2022 bottom read +50.8 (Moderate Accumulation). It has also failed: the 2018 and 2020 bottoms and the October 2025 top stayed in Neutral — every miss is documented, with numbers, in where the Score has failed.

How to use this page

As cycle context, not as a trading signal: the Score situates the market, it does not time entries or exits. Nothing here is financial advice. If you want to be notified when the phase changes, there are free Telegram alerts on the live cycle Score page — where you will also find the full breakdown behind today's reading.

See the full live analysis — verdict, reasons, DCA simulator and backtest — on the NodeWitness live cycle Score page. Free, no sign-up.

Last updated: September 10, 2026