Bitcoin cycle top and bottom indicators today
A blood test doesn’t add cholesterol to glucose: each result is read against its own reference range. This page does the same for 11 Bitcoin cycle indicators we chart, showing the latest value, where it ranks in its own history and how much of that history it spent on either side of the levels its chart draws. Nothing is combined into a total, and none of it is a buy or sell signal.
Latest data point 18/10/2026 · regenerated every hour
MVRV Z-Score
Gap between market cap and realized cap, in standard deviations.
Middle of its history. Higher than or equal to 41% of its readings since 2011.
- Below 0: 14% of days in its history; last time 12/01/2023.
Range: -0.64 (19/10/2011) to 9.94 (09/04/2013).
NUPL
Unrealized profit or loss of the whole supply, as a fraction of market cap.
Middle of its history. Higher than or equal to 41% of its readings since 2018.
- Below 0: 10% of weeks in its history; last time 08/01/2023.
Range: -0.43 (16/12/2018) to 0.75 (21/02/2021).
Short-term holder MVRV (STH)
Price against the average cost of coins moved in the last 155 days.
Upper part of its history. Higher than or equal to 70% of its readings since 2018.
- Below 1: 48% of weeks in its history; last time 14/06/2026.
Range: 0.58 (12/03/2020) to 1.72 (21/02/2021).
Supply in profit
Share of coins whose last move happened below the current price.
Middle of its history. Higher than or equal to 40% of its readings since 2018.
- Below 50%: 5.9% of weeks in its history; last time 07/06/2026.
Range: 39.1% (15/12/2018) to 99.8% (18/05/2025).
Long-term holders in loss
Share of long-term supply now worth less than its cost.
Upper part of its history. Higher than or equal to 76% of its readings since 2018.
Range: 0.0% (12/01/2018) to 52.7% (17/02/2019).
Puell Multiple
Daily miner revenue against its 365-day average.
Middle of its history. Higher than or equal to 55% of its readings since 2011.
- Above 4: 2.7% of days in its history; last time 06/01/2018.
- Below 0.5: 5% of days in its history; last time 27/12/2022.
Range: 0.24 (20/10/2011) to 11.48 (09/06/2011).
Hash Ribbons
30-day hashrate average divided by the 60-day one.
Middle of its history. Higher than or equal to 44% of its readings since 2010.
- Below 1: 17% of days in its history; last time 25/08/2026.
Range: 0.807 (18/07/2021) to 1.858 (10/08/2010).
Pi Cycle Top
111-day price average divided by twice the 350-day one.
Middle of its history. Higher than or equal to 30% of its readings since 2011.
- Above 1: 7% of days in its history; last time 22/04/2021.
Range: 0.29 (30/09/2022) to 1.47 (01/08/2011).
2-Year MA Multiplier
Price divided by its 730-day average.
Lower part of its history. Higher than or equal to 25% of its readings since 2012.
- Below 1: 28% of days in its history; now: yes.
- Above 5: 4.8% of days in its history; last time 15/01/2018.
Range: 0.41 (21/11/2022) to 17.56 (29/11/2013).
Mayer Multiple
Price divided by its 200-day average.
Middle of its history. Higher than or equal to 52% of its readings since 2011.
- Below 1: 38% of days in its history; last time 18/08/2026.
- Above 2.4: 5.3% of days in its history; last time 13/03/2021.
Range: 0.24 (21/11/2011) to 13.56 (08/06/2011).
200-week moving average
Price divided by its 200-week average.
Lower part of its history. Higher than or equal to 23% of its readings since 2014.
- Below 1: 8.5% of days in its history; last time 16/08/2026.
Range: 0.66 (21/11/2022) to 15.44 (16/12/2017).
How to cite this figure: “Bitcoin cycle indicators against their own history, 18/10/2026.” NodeWitness, https://nodewitness.com/en/bitcoin-top-bottom-indicators/
How to read each card
The percentile is the share of the indicator’s own history at or below today’s value: a percentile of 30 means 30% of its observations, daily or weekly depending on the series, were at that level or lower. The bands just name those ranges: under 10, 10 to 30, 30 to 70, 70 to 90, and 90 or more, and the coloured edge of each card follows the band. The reference levels are the lines each chart already draws, such as 1 on the Pi Cycle or 2.4 on the Mayer Multiple. For each one we show how much of the indicator’s history sat on that side and when it last did, not counting the current streak.
Limitations
Histories differ in length. The oldest series start in 2010 and 2011, the 200-week average in 2014 and the on-chain series from our own node in 2018, so the same percentile doesn’t span the same cycles: a low reading on a series that has seen two bear markets tells you less than one that has seen four. The node’s weekly series can lag, and the card says so with the date of its latest point. A percentile describes the past and says nothing about what comes next. Nothing here is investment advice.
Every chart with its full history is in the on-chain charts section. The pattern that has repeated at past cycle tops and bottoms, and where it broke down, is covered in Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms; the risk of tuning thresholds on past cycles has a name in our glossary: overfitting. The power law, built from nothing but price and the calendar, isn’t one of the cards here; it has a chart of its own: Bitcoin power law.
Frequently asked questions
Has Bitcoin bottomed?
No indicator can tell you that with certainty, and neither can this page. What it shows is where each common top and bottom indicator stands today against its own history: which ones sit in the low part of their range, which in the middle and which near the top. At past lows several of them were in the low part at once, but that is only clear looking back.
Which indicators are on this page?
MVRV Z-Score, NUPL, short-term holder MVRV, supply in profit, long-term holders in loss, Puell Multiple, Hash Ribbons, Pi Cycle Top, 2-Year MA Multiplier, Mayer Multiple and the 200-week moving average.
Why is there no overall score on this page?
Each indicator measures something different over histories of different lengths, and merging them would mean deciding how much each one counts. This page doesn’t do that; it only sets each indicator against its own past.
Is this a buy or sell signal?
No. Each card only describes where an indicator sits within its own history. It is not investment advice.
How often is it updated?
The page is regenerated every hour. Daily series show the last closed day; the node’s weekly series show the latest available weekly snapshot, and a card flags it when its latest point is more than 21 days old.
Last updated: October 19, 2026