The share of coins unmoved for more than 155 days that sit below their estimated acquisition price. Each point is a full UTXO-set snapshot from our own node.
When a large slice of long-term supply is underwater, even the most patient holders are losing money. In past cycles that level has lined up with bottoming zones, and the peak tends to come weeks after the price low.
For every unspent coin older than 155 days we take the price on the day it last moved and compare it with the price at the snapshot. Coins with no historical price available can't be evaluated and are counted separately.
Coins last moved before bitcoin had a market price (before August 2010) can't be evaluated. When they exceed 10% of long-term supply the snapshot is flagged as degraded, which is the case for nearly the whole series, so read the level with that in mind. Details in our analysis of long-term holders in loss.
Supply broken down by coin age lives in the HODL waves chart.
Everything on supply and holders is on the NodeWitness Supply page.