The Fed Holds, and Bitcoin's Chain Stays in Profit
The Fed delivered the pause nearly everyone expected, and Kevin Warsh gave little away about December. On-chain, our node shows coins changing hands on Fed day at a slight profit on average, with realized losses well below their usual 2026 level.
The Federal Reserve left the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, October 28, according to its statement [1]. The vote was 10-2. Governor Lisa D. Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth M. Hammack wanted another quarter-point increase [1]. It was Cook's first dissent since she joined the Board in 2022, CNBC reported [5]. Bitcoin traded at $79,847 early on Thursday, 1.3% below Tuesday's close on the eve of the decision [2]. It had finished Fed day itself higher, at $81,344, before slipping overnight [2].
Warsh used his opening remarks to stress that inflation is still too high. "We've made clear our readiness to act as circumstances require, and we have shown our willingness to act," he said [3]. He would not be drawn on a December move. "A lot of things can happen, so I'm not going to be able to share with you my musings about what happens when this group gets together six weeks from now," he told reporters, as quoted by Cointelegraph [4]. Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at tokenization platform Theo, summed up the reaction in comments to the same outlet. "Markets had the hold priced, but not the hawkish tone," he said, adding that bitcoin now has to compete with a risk-free rate near 4% [4].
A decision the market had priced
The open question was the chair. Warsh has rejected the habit of pre-announcing decisions and distanced himself from the committee's projections in September, CNBC noted in an October 16 analysis [7]. At that meeting the FOMC raised rates by a quarter point, 12-0, to 3.75%-4% [8].
What the chain did on Fed day
Coins spent on October 28 (UTC) were sold at a small profit on average. Our node's daily recalculation puts SOPR at 1.0025, with $434 million of realized profit against $246 million of realized loss [9]. Profit-taking ran almost 50% above the 2026 median of $292 million, while losses were about a third below their own median of $366 million, both measured through October 28 [9]. It was the fourteenth straight day with SOPR above 1, and only two days in October have closed below that line [9]. One caveat matters here. The UTC day of the 28th captures only the six hours after the statement.
The telling number is the loss figure. Recent buyers had the most to lose from a hawkish Fed, and our node's October 25 snapshot shows just over half of short-term holder coins, 1.91 million of 3.75 million BTC, with a cost basis above $80,000 [10]. With price trading a little above that level on Fed day, many of those holders were sitting close to breakeven, and a loss reading this low suggests they did not rush for the exit. Those who did sell were mostly locking in gains. SOPR blends every coin spent in the day and cannot tell sellers apart, so this is an inference drawn from the cost-basis distribution.
October 29 data is not available yet because the UTC day has not closed. We will update the table once our node recalculates it.
| Date | SOPR | Realized profit | Realized loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 | 1.0019 | $590M | $402M |
| Oct 27 | 1.0019 | $377M | $239M |
| Oct 28 | 1.0025 | $434M | $246M |
Source: NodeWitness daily recalculation from its node's blocks [9]. UTC days.
After the other six meetings this year
The 2026 record offers no rule for price, but it does show a tendency on-chain. After five of the six earlier decisions, SOPR on the following day closed below 1, meaning coins that moved were sold at a loss on average [9]. July was the exception. That is a small sample in a weak year, since 56% of all days in 2026 have closed with SOPR below 1 [9]. This week's decision-day reading of 1.0025 is the second highest of the year's seven meetings, just behind June's [9].
| Meeting | SOPR on decision day | SOPR next day | Realized loss next day | Price one week later vs eve |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28 | 0.9985 | 0.9627 | $2,754M | −18.0% |
| Mar 18 | 0.9758 | 0.9846 | $796M | −3.5% |
| Apr 29 | 0.9910 | 0.9935 | $649M | +6.7% |
| Jun 17 | 1.0026 | 0.9865 | $653M | −7.0% |
| Jul 29 | 0.9997 | 1.0050 | $329M | +1.2% |
| Sep 16 | 0.9988 | 0.9954 | $755M | +11.6% |
Source: NodeWitness daily recalculation [9] and Binance BTC/USDT daily candles [2]. UTC days.
Price went both ways. A week after January's meeting bitcoin was 18% below its pre-meeting close, while a week after September's it was 11.6% above [2]. The next-day reading on-chain did not reliably foreshadow the week either.
What is left of the week
September PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, and the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP are due at 12:30 UTC on Thursday [11]. On Friday at 08:00 UTC, about 135,800 bitcoin options expire on Deribit, which we broke down in our options expiry analysis [12].
The hold was priced in, and the real decision now sits in December, with futures leaning toward a hike. Before then, Thursday's inflation data and Friday's expiry will test how steady holders really are.
Track the data on our SOPR and short- and long-term holder realized price charts. How rates, bonds and oil reach bitcoin is covered in our macro and Fed analysis, and more on prices lives in our Market section.
Sources
Source type in brackets. All times UTC. Accessed October 29, 2026.
- Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, October 28, 2026, 2:00 p.m. ET (18:00 UTC). Target range held at 3.75%-4% in a 10-2 vote; Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferred a quarter-point increase. See also the same day's implementation note. (Primary, official)
- NodeWitness, Binance BTC/USDT daily candles (UTC) via
/api/market/ohlc, with closes of $80,910 on October 27 and $81,344 on October 28, and market ticker with CoinGecko price, read at 08:07 UTC on October 29. Price changes around 2026 meetings calculated by NodeWitness from daily closes. (Primary, own data with third-party price) - Federal Reserve, Transcript of Chairman Warsh's Press Conference, opening statement, preliminary, October 28, 2026, press conference at 18:30 UTC. (Primary, official)
- Cointelegraph, Fed's hawkish rate hold keeps pressure on Bitcoin: Analysts, October 29, 2026. Comments from Iggy Ioppe (Theo), Warsh's answer on December, CME FedWatch odds. (Secondary, press)
- CNBC, Jeff Cox, Here are five key takeaways from the Fed rate decision and Warsh news conference, October 28, 2026. (Secondary, press)
- Seoul Economic Daily, Yoon Kyung-hwan, U.S. Economists See Fed Holding Rates on the 28th, Hiking in December, October 26, 2026. Reuters poll, CME FedWatch probabilities, Bank of America forecast. (Secondary, press)
- CNBC, Matt Peterson, Analysis: Everyone expects the Fed to hold rates in October. Kevin Warsh could surprise us all, October 16, 2026. (Secondary, press)
- Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, September 16, 2026. Increase to 3.75%-4%, 12-0 vote. (Primary, official)
- NodeWitness, daily on-chain series (
/api/node/onchain-daily) recalculated from our node's blocks through block 973,614 (October 28, 2026). SOPR, realized profit and loss; 2026 medians and share of days with SOPR below 1 (168 of 301 through October 28) calculated by NodeWitness. Meeting dates from the FOMC calendar. (Primary, own data) - NodeWitness, supply in loss by price and cohort balances, UTXO set snapshot at block 973,007 (October 25, 2026), 155-day short-term threshold. (Primary, own data)
- Bureau of Economic Analysis, Release Schedule. Q3 GDP (advance) and September Personal Income and Outlays, October 29, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET. (Primary, official)
- Deribit, public API (
public/get_book_summary_by_currency), read at 08:12 UTC on October 29, 2026. Open interest for the October 30 expiry, 135,781 options. (Primary, exchange data)
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Last updated: October 29, 2026