Bar chart of bitcoin realized profit and realized loss from October 29 to November 4, 2026. On November 3 realized losses were $834M against $355M in profit; on November 4 profit rose to $659M and losses fell to $93M. Below, a coin days destroyed line drops from 19.73 to 5.33 million.
NodeWitness chart based on our daily on-chain recalculation. UTC days.

Bitcoin's Post-Midterm Rebound, Seen On-Chain

NodeWitness Team 5 min read

Within hours, bitcoin went from a seven-week low back above $80,000 after Democrats swept the US midterms. On-chain, the turn was even sharper. Realized losses collapsed from one day to the next, and old coins never left their wallets.

Democrats took control of both the House and the Senate in the November 3 elections [1][2]. Markets flinched first. Bitcoin slid to $75,618 on Bitstamp, a level last seen in mid-September, Cointelegraph reported [1]. Then it bounced, clearing $80,500 as Wall Street opened on Wednesday [2]. In our daily series the close went from $77,454 on November 3 to $80,504 on November 4 [3].

Bitwise Europe's head of research André Dragosch told Decrypt the sweep was "largely priced in," with sentiment already very bearish going into the vote [4]. The chain backs that up, with one twist about who actually paid for the drop.

The sellers who took losses

SOPR divides the price at which each coin is spent by the price at which it last moved. Above 1, coins spent that day changed hands at a profit overall. Below 1, at a loss.

Our node's daily SOPR sat below 1 on four of the five days from October 30 to November 3 [5]. November 3 closed at 0.9949, with $834M in realized losses against $355M in realized profit [5]. That isn't the worst day of the stretch (October 29 topped $1.26B in losses), but it capped a week of selling in the red.

Timing matters here. The first East Coast polls closed after midnight UTC, so it was already November 4 on our clock [6]. Nearly all of the November 3 UTC day happened before a single result came in. The heavy losses were booked while traders sat in front of thier screens waiting for the count.

The holders who stayed put

November 4, the UTC day that holds both the overnight dip and the bounce, flipped SOPR up to 1.0067 [5]. Realized profit hit $659M and realized losses only $93M, a 7.1-to-1 ratio last seen on October 5 [5]. Despite the overnight slide, almost nobody sold at a loss. Most of what was sold went out in profit, which points to selling into the bounce.

Date SOPR Realized profit Realized loss CDD (millions)
Nov 1 0.9952 $296M $591M 13.73
Nov 2 0.9973 $528M $789M 16.76
Nov 3 0.9949 $355M $834M 19.73
Nov 4 1.0067 $659M $93M 5.33

Source: NodeWitness daily recalculation from our node's blocks [5]. UTC days.

The bottom landed on a level we watch closely. The average cost of recent buyers, the short-term holder realized price, stood at $75,765 in our November 1 weekly reading [7]. The $75,618 low reported by Cointelegraph [1] dipped just under it and didn't stay there. By the November 4 close, short-term holder MVRV (daily approximation) was back at 1.06 [7]. On average, those buyers were sitting on a 6% gain again.

Old coins didn't budge

Coin days destroyed (CDD) weighs every spent coin by how long it had been idle, so it jumps when old coins wake up. On November 4 it dropped to 5.33 million BTC-days, from 19.73 million on November 3, and the lowest reading since October 25 [5]. Dormancy, the average age of what was spent, fell to 5 days from 16.5 [5].

That's the other half of the story. Young coins drove the rebound, and long-term holders didn't use the rally to take money off the table. They don't show up in the November 3 losses either, when CDD was high but in line with an already jittery week. CDD aggregates every spent coin and identifies nobody, so this is an inference from aggregate data.

What to watch next

One day doesn't make a trend. The seven-day average SOPR was still 0.997 at the November 4 close, below 1 [5]. The next weekly short-term holder cost basis comes with the Sunday, November 8 close, and the difficulty adjustment, which our node estimates at roughly 2.7% lower, is due around November 13 [8].

SOPR and realized profit and loss update daily on our SOPR chart, with broader context on the market page.

Sources

Source type in parentheses.

  1. Cointelegraph, Bitcoin bounces from 7-week low under $76K as Democrats sweep Congress, November 4, 2026. $75,618 low on Bitstamp and election outcome. (Secondary, press)
  2. Cointelegraph, Bitcoin hits $80.5K as US stocks rally on midterm election results, November 4, 2026. (Secondary, press)
  3. NodeWitness, daily price series (/api/market/price-history), closes for November 3 and 4, 2026. (Primary, own data with third-party price)
  4. Decrypt, Bitcoin Shrugs Off Midterms as Experts Say Democratic Sweep Was 'Priced In', November 4, 2026. Quote from André Dragosch. (Secondary, press)
  5. NodeWitness, daily on-chain series (/api/node/onchain-daily) recalculated from our node's blocks through block 974,600 (November 4, 2026). SOPR, realized profit and loss, CDD and dormancy. Seven-day average and comparisons calculated by NodeWitness. (Primary, own data)
  6. CoinDesk, Live updates, Crypto's election gamble falters as Democratic victories usher in a 'blue wave', November 3, 2026. Poll closing times. (Secondary, press)
  7. NodeWitness, realized price by cohort (/api/market/realized-cohorts/history), weekly reading for November 1, 2026 (block 974,069) and approximate daily MVRV for November 4, 2026. (Primary, own data)
  8. NodeWitness, market ticker, difficulty adjustment estimate read on November 5, 2026 at height 974,665. (Primary, own data)

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Last updated: November 5, 2026