Bitcoin Falls Back to Short-Term Holder Cost After the Midterm Rebound

NodeWitness Team 5 min read

On November 5, $929M in losses were realized against $275M in profit and SOPR dropped to 0.9928, one session after the post-midterm rebound. The daily close sat once more on the cost basis of recent buyers.

Our node's recalculation puts it plainly: on November 5 (UTC), spent coins left with $929M in losses against $275M in profit. SOPR closed at 0.9928 [7]. The daily price fell from $80,504 on November 4 to $76,088 on November 5 [1], back beside the $75,765 average cost, as of the November 1 reading, of those who bought in recent months [8].

Bitcoin wiped out the relief that followed the Democratic sweep of the US midterms. Cointelegraph put the Bitstamp intraday low at $75,463, back in seven-week-low territory [2]. Investing.com later showed the price around $75,566 [3]. Our market ticker read the cash price near $75,300 [4].

The market story is a broader slide in risk assets. CoinDesk called it Wall Street's worst session since the April 2025 tariff shock: the Nasdaq dropped 5.5% and the Philadelphia semiconductor index 12%, on fears a Democratic Congress could slow the build-out of data centers tied to artificial intelligence [5].

More than $1,000M in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, per CoinGlass as cited by CoinDesk [5]. In paralell, US spot bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $430.2M on November 5, after a $74.6M inflow on November 4, according to Farside Investors [6].

SOPR flips in a single session

On November 4 the daily SOPR had closed at 1.0067, with $659M in realized profit and only $93M in losses [7]. A day later the indicator slipped below 1: on average, what was spent left at a loss.

The blunt figure is the mix. $929M in realized losses against $275M in profit. A 3.4-to-1 tilt toward the red [7].

It is not the worst recent day. On October 29 losses topped $1,260M. It is the hardest since November 3, when the midterms had not yet been counted.

Date SOPR Realized profit Realized loss CDD (millions)
Nov 2 0.9973 $528M $789M 16.76
Nov 3 0.9949 $355M $834M 19.73
Nov 4 1.0067 $659M $93M 5.33
Nov 5 0.9928 $275M $929M 14.84

Source: NodeWitness daily recalculation from our node's blocks [7]. UTC days.

The seven-day average SOPR is still 0.998 at the November 5 close, below 1 [7]. A one-day bounce did not repair the streak.

The floor lines up again with recent buyers' cost

The average cost of recent buyers, the short-term holder realized price, stood at $75,765 in the November 1 weekly reading [8]. The November 5 close, $76,088, sat just above it.

Approximate daily short-term holder MVRV fell from 1.06 on November 4 to 1.004 on November 5 [8]. Put another way: those buyers were, on average, roughly flat.

Aggregate MVRV, also as a daily approximation, moved from 1.49 to 1.41 [8]. It remains above 1, so the supply as a whole is still, on average, in profit. The squeeze is concentrated among buyers from recent months.

Somewhat older coins moved, without leading the day

Coin days destroyed (CDD) weighs every spent coin by how long it had been idle. On November 5 it rose to 14.84 million BTC-days, from 5.33 million on the rebound day [7].

Dormancy, the average age of what was spent, climbed to 12.5 days from 5 on November 4 [7]. That is not an extreme wake-up: November 3 CDD reached 19.73 million.

That said, the down day moved somewhat older coins than the rebound we measured on November 4. CDD aggregates every spent coin and identifies nobody. This is an inference from aggregate data.

What to watch next

The next weekly short-term holder cost basis comes with the Sunday, November 8 close. The difficulty adjustment, which our node estimates at roughly 3% lower, is due around November 13 [9].

Until then, the cash price keeps brushing the $75,000 to $76,000 band that already marked the floor before the rebound.

Daily SOPR can be followed on the SOPR chart. To see whether those recent buyers pull away from their cost or stay pinned to it, the STH/LTH realized price chart and the MVRV chart. Market pulse, on the market page.

Sources

Source type in parentheses.

  1. NodeWitness, daily price series (/api/market/price-history), closes for November 4 and 5, 2026. (Primary, own data with third-party price)
  2. Cointelegraph, Bitcoin crashes 6% to 7-week low as US stocks erase election gains, November 5, 2026. $75,463 low on Bitstamp. (Secondary, press)
  3. Investing.com, Bitcoin slips to $75k as U.S. regulatory uncertainty grows, November 6, 2026. Price around $75,566. (Secondary, press)
  4. NodeWitness, market ticker and /api/market/price-now, reading on November 6, 2026. Spot ≈ $75,323. (Primary, own data with third-party price)
  5. CoinDesk, Bitcoin tumbles to $76,000 as collapsing AI trade drags stocks sharply lower, November 5, 2026. Nasdaq −5.5%, semiconductors −12%, >$1B liquidations (CoinGlass), quotes from Joshua Lim (FalconX) and Carlos Guzman (GSR). (Secondary, press)
  6. Farside Investors, Bitcoin ETF Flow, flows for November 4, 2026 (+$74.6M) and November 5, 2026 (−$430.2M). (Secondary, market data)
  7. NodeWitness, daily on-chain series (/api/node/onchain-daily) recalculated from our node's blocks through block 974,732 (November 5, 2026). SOPR, realized profit and loss, CDD and dormancy. Seven-day average and ratios calculated by NodeWitness. (Primary, own data)
  8. NodeWitness, realized price by cohort (/api/market/realized-cohorts/history), weekly reading for November 1, 2026 (block 974,069) and approximate daily MVRV for November 4 and 5, 2026. (Primary, own data)
  9. NodeWitness, market ticker, difficulty adjustment estimate read on November 6, 2026 at height 974,775 (−3.0% estimated, retarget around November 13, 2026). (Primary, own data)

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Last updated: November 6, 2026