Bitcoin Difficulty Heads for Its Biggest Cut Since June as MARA Sells 13,597 BTC
October brought two back-to-back difficulty increases of more than 5%. November looks set to reverse them. Blocks are arriving late, a petahash of hashrate earns about $32 a day, and MARA, one of the largest listed miners, has sold 40% of its bitcoin in six weeks.
Updated on the evening of November 10, 2026: our node's estimate has moved from −6.6% to −6.8%, with 1,615 of the period's 2,016 blocks already mined.
Bitcoin's mining difficulty is on course for a 6.8% cut at block 975,744, according to our node's estimate with 1,615 of the period's 2,016 blocks already mined [1]. Since the last adjustment, blocks have arrived every 644.4 seconds on average, about 10 minutes and 44 seconds, against the protocol's 10-minute target [1]. mempool.space gets a close figure, minus 6.93% with 401 blocks to go [3]. If that holds, difficulty would fall from 148.36 trillion to about 138.21 trillion around November 13 [1].
It would be the biggest cut since June 14, when difficulty dropped 10.09%, and the first decline after October's rises of 5.92% and 5.54% [2]. The new level would sit below the 140.58 trillion set on October 16, erasing all of the October 29 increase and a slice of the one before it [2]. When we covered that second rise alongside Jason Calacanis's "dead network" jibe, the next move could have gone either way. The chain is leaning toward the cut.
A full year without a new high
The hashrate implied by block times tells the same story. Our node puts the current period at about 989 exahashes per second, against 1,061 EH/s in the previous one [1][2]. Luxor's Hashrate Index shows its seven-day average sliding from 1,062 to 979 EH/s over a single week [7].
MARA sells 40% of its stack
MARA Holdings picked this moment to report its third quarter. In its shareholder letter, the company says it sold 13,597 bitcoin after September 30 at about $81,039 each, for roughly $1.1 billion [8]. It used $750 million of that to fully repay its bitcoin-collateralized term loans, which released 17,477 coins it had pledged [8]. MARA held 34,012 bitcoin at the end of September, so the sale was about 40% of its treasury, as CoinDesk worked out [8][9].
Set against its own output, the sale is large. MARA mined 2,247 bitcoin in the whole quarter, 24.4 a day, which means it sold about six quarters' worth of production in six weeks [8][9]. Set against the network, it is large too. At 3.125 BTC per block and a target of 144 blocks a day, bitcoin issues about 450 new coins daily, and MARA's 13,597 come to roughly 30 days of that.
The company is not framing this as a one-off. "We intend to continue using bitcoin to build cash for purposes such as AI infrastructure opportunities," it wrote, adding that the cash could also cover puts on its convertible notes that open in 2027 and possible share buybacks [8]. Its board has authorized buybacks of up to $500 million [8]. MARA had already sold about 26,984 bitcoin in the first nine months of the year [8]. Riot and Hut 8 have been doing the same, as we laid out in our piece on their sales to fund AI data centers.
What a petahash earns
Hashprice, the revenue per unit of hashrate, needs only three inputs, difficulty, the reward per block and the bitcoin price. Over the last 1,008 blocks, from 974,260 to 975,267, miners collected 3,172.92 BTC, of which 22.92 BTC was fees, or 0.72% [5]. That is 3.1477 BTC per block on average.
At the difficulty in force since October 29, one petahash per second earns about 42,700 satoshis a day. With bitcoin at $74,665 on the NodeWitness ticker, that is around $31.87 [11]. Hashrate Index had it at $31.89 on November 9, close to our number [7]. If difficulty falls 6.8% and nothing else moves, the same petahash would earn about 45,800 satoshis, 7% more, or about $34.21 at the same price. The math behind that figure is the same one we walked through in our look at mining costs after Vitalik Buterin's electricity comment.
| Scenario | Difficulty | Sats per PH/s per day | $ per PH/s per day |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 29 adjustment | 148.36 trillion | ~42,700 | ~31.87 |
| Projected November 13 adjustment | ~138.21 trillion | ~45,800 | ~34.21 |
Source: NodeWitness node [1][2], average reward from mempool.space [5] and price from the NodeWitness ticker [11]. Gross revenue, before electricity, hardware and pool fees.
MARA reports a cost of $30.8 per petahash per day for the quarter [8]. The letter doesn't spell out what goes into that figure, so lining it up against hashprice is only a rough guide. It still shows how thin the margin gets with bitcoin under $75,000.
How to read the estimate, and where it misleads
The difficulty estimate is simple arithmetic. It takes the average block time since the last adjustment and scales it against ten minutes. That makes it jumpy early in a period and steadier as the adjustment block gets closer. On November 2, with 27% of the period mined, Hashrate Index projected minus 2.8% and warned that "early on, difficulty predictions are shaky because of short-term variance" [6]. By November 9 it was at minus 6.5% [7]. In the previous period, our node projected plus 6.27% four days out, and the final number was plus 5.54% [12].
Daily hashrate is noisier still. mempool.space's daily estimate went from 1,128 EH/s on November 2 to 910 EH/s on November 3, a 19% swing in a single day [4]. Finding a block is a lottery, and a few unlucky days can look like machines going dark when they are still running.
It also pays not to hunt for culprits that aren't there. Binance shut its mining pool on November 10, but it had found just one of the network's 910 blocks in the seven days before, per mempool.space [4][10]. Miners in a closing pool can point their machines at a seperate one without switching off, so the closure does not explain the drop [10].
Difficulty is a lagging signal, too. It reflects what occured in the last two weeks and says nothing about who unplugged, whether over price, power costs or a move to other work. And the hashrate a company reports is not what the chain sees. The 71.2 EH/s MARA cites is "energized" hashrate, which by its own definition includes machines that may be temporarily offline [8]. Over the quarter, MARA took 5.4% of the network's rewards [8].
What comes next
Roughly 401 blocks remain, about three days at this pace, and the final cut can land above or below 6.8%. A run of fast blocks would shrink it, and a slow run would deepen it. After that, the question is whether the hashrate that went quiet comes back at the lower difficulty, or whether some of it stays with other businesses, like the data centers MARA is pointing its power at.
Follow the countdown on our difficulty adjustment page and the network's power on the hashrate and Hash Ribbons charts. For what a home miner's odds look like at this difficulty, see our solo mining piece. More network coverage lives in the network section.
Sources
Source type in brackets. Accessed November 10, 2026, unless stated otherwise.
- NodeWitness, difficulty adjustment (
/api/node/difficulty-adjustment), read on November 10, 2026 at 21:39 (Madrid time) at block 975,343. 1,615 blocks into the period, 644.4-second average block time, estimate of −6.84%, estimated difficulty of 138,209,410,968,544 and estimated hashrate of 988.9 EH/s. (Primary, own data) - NodeWitness, difficulty history by period (
/api/node/hashrate). Adjustments of June 14 (−10.09%), October 16 (+5.92%) and October 29, 2026 (+5.54%), record of October 29, 2025 (155.97 trillion), the 364-day stretch from August 1, 2011 to July 30, 2012, and the previous period's estimated hashrate (1,061 EH/s). Stretch calculation is our own. (Primary, own data) - mempool.space, difficulty adjustment, November 10, 2026 at 21:39 (Madrid time). Estimate of −6.93% with 401 blocks remaining. (Secondary, block explorer)
- mempool.space, daily hashrate (1,128 EH/s on November 2 and 910 EH/s on November 3) and pools over the seven days to November 10 (Binance Pool, 1 of 910 blocks), November 10, 2026. (Secondary, block explorer)
- mempool.space, reward stats, blocks 974,260 to 975,267. Total reward of 3,172.92 BTC, of which 22.92 BTC in fees. (Secondary, block explorer)
- Hashrate Index (Luxor), Kaan Farahani, Hashrate Index Roundup (November 2, 2026), November 2, 2026. Estimate of −2.8% with 554 of 2,016 blocks. (Secondary, industry data)
- Hashrate Index (Luxor), Kaan Farahani, Hashrate Index Weekly Roundup, November 9, 2026. Estimate of −6.5%, seven-day average from 1,062 to 979 EH/s and hashprice of $31.89. (Secondary, industry data)
- MARA Holdings, Q3'26 Shareholder Letter, Exhibit 99.1 to the 8-K filed with the SEC on November 9, 2026. Sale of 13,597 BTC, $750 million repayment, 17,477 BTC released, 34,012 BTC at September 30, 2,247 BTC mined, 71.2 EH/s energized, 5.4% of rewards, $30.8 per PH/s per day, 26,984 BTC sold in nine months and buybacks of up to $500 million. (Primary, company)
- CoinDesk, Shaurya Malwa, Bitcoin miner MARA sold 13,597 BTC for $1.1 billion in six weeks, plans to sell more, November 10, 2026. Sale equal to 40% of holdings and six times quarterly output. (Secondary, press)
- CoinDesk, Shaurya Malwa, Binance's bitcoin mining pool finds just one block in a week as shutdown nears, November 9, 2026. Binance Pool closure on November 10 and miners redirecting machines to other pools. (Secondary, press)
- NodeWitness, market ticker, read on November 10, 2026. Price of $74,665 (CoinGecko data). (Primary, own data)
- NodeWitness, Los mineros de bitcoin ingresan un 5 % menos por petahash tras otra subida de la dificultad, October 30, 2026, in Spanish. Our node's estimate of +6.27% on October 26 and final adjustment of +5.54%. (Primary, own data)
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Last updated: November 10, 2026