What does 'mathematically out of reach' actually mean here?

That even if every remaining block in the period signaled in favour, the total would still fall short of the threshold. On August 1, 2026 the voluntary period's ceiling dropped to 50.2%, below the 55% required. As of August 5 the ceiling is 27.3%.

Where does your signaling figure come from?

From reading each block's version field directly off our own Bitcoin node, using getblockhash and getblockheader. We depend on no third-party monitor. Our 2.66% matches the ~2.6% reported elsewhere, which is a useful cross-check for both.

Why does a signaling percentage matter at all?

Because it is the mechanism by which miners express readiness for a soft fork. Low signaling combined with an activation schedule is precisely what makes critics warn about a minority chain — nodes running the new rules following a different chain from the rest of the network.

3D render of a row of dark metallic blocks receding into depth against a deep navy background; most are unlit and only three or four glow with warm amber light from within. In the foreground, a worn golden Bitcoin coin leans against one of the blocks, with blurred blue candlestick bars behind — Our own AI-generated illustration; the blocks and background candlesticks are decorative and do not represent real data. The proportion of lit blocks evokes the minority signaling we did measure, but it is not a chart.

BIP-110's voluntary period was already decided on August 1. We measured it block by block.

Q: So BIP-110 can no longer activate?

No. It means the VOLUNTARY period cannot reach lock-in. The mandatory signaling window (blocks 961,632 to 963,647) is a separate period with its own count. Conflating the two is the most common error in the coverage.

NodeWitness Team August 5, 2026 4 min read

On August 1, 2026, BIP-110's voluntary signaling period lost any arithmetic path to its threshold, regardless of what the rest of the network did afterwards. We know because we read the version bits block by block off our own node, not because a monitor told us.

BIP-110's mandatory signaling window opens at block 961,632, expected around August 9. Before it does, it is worth understanding what happened in the period that came before — and there is a specific date there we have not seen published anywhere: the day the outcome stopped being in play.

What our node says

The voluntary period spans blocks 959,616 to 961,631 — 2,016 blocks. As of August 5, 1,506 blocks have been mined and 40 of them signal in favour: 2.66%. Lock-in requires 1,109 blocks, or 55% of the period.

Chart of the still-reachable signaling ceiling falling from 99.9% to 27.3% and crossing below the 55% threshold on August 1, 2026 — Our diagram, from data read off our node. The orange line is not the signaling rate: it is the maximum the period could still reach.

The line that matters is not the 2.66% — it is the ceiling. A block mined without signaling does not merely leave the counter unchanged: it permanently removes a chance to add to it. With 510 blocks left, even if all 510 signaled, the total would reach 550 blocks. That is 27.3%, half of what is needed.

The crossing happened on August 1, when the ceiling fell to 50.2%. From that day the voluntary period's outcome was settled, even though the period stayed open for another eight days.

Day	Blocks mined	Signaling	Ceiling still reachable
Jul 25	2	0	99.9%
Jul 28	127	3	80.0%
Jul 30	153	8	65.7%
Jul 31	157	2	58.0%
Aug 1	164	6	50.2%
Aug 3	150	3	36.1%
Aug 5	41	2	27.3%

How we measured it, so you can repeat it

For every block in the period we ask our node for its hash and its header (getblockhash, getblockheader) and read the version field. The arithmetic is what you see above: count how many signal, subtract the blocks already mined from the period total, and add the two to get the ceiling.

There is nothing proprietary in any of that. Anyone with a full node can reproduce it — which is rather the point. This is a figure you check, not one you take on faith.

Most coverage cites the public BIP110Monitor, a perfectly reasonable third-party service. Our result, reached independently, agrees with it: we measure 2.66% and the reported figure is around 2.6%. That agreement is useful for both of us.

What this figure does not say

This is where to slow down, because it is the point coverage flattens most often.

The voluntary period failing to reach lock-in does not mean BIP-110 is cancelled. The mandatory signaling window — blocks 961,632 to 963,647 — is a separate period with its own count, and activation would fall later still, at block 965,664. They are distinct mechanisms, and merging them produces wrong headlines in both directions.

Nor are we saying anything here about whether BIP-110 is a good idea. It has serious critics — Michael Saylor, Adam Back and Jameson Lopp among them have warned about chain-split risk — and supporters who see it as a necessary defence of block space. That argument is legitimate and a percentage does not settle it.

The only claim we make is verifiable arithmetic: given the blocks already mined, that particular period was not going to get there.

What to watch from August 9

When the mandatory window opens, the count that matters resets for the new period. We will measure it the same way, with the same method, and update this article with the voluntary period's final close.

If you run your own node and are weighing what to do, the practical part has not changed since we wrote it: it is in the node operator playbook, including the difference between doing nothing, upgrading, and switching implementation.

Would you rather check the state of the network yourself than trust a headline? On Network and mining we publish our node's status and the data we compute from it, with live block height you can cross-check against any explorer.

Last updated: August 5, 2026