https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/ Score methodology, Bitcoin on-chain indicators, and how to verify them yourself. en Wed, 23 Sep 2026 12:44:32 +0000 https://nodewitness.com/email/logo.png https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/ 144 39 https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-realized-price/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-realized-price/ Sun, 20 Sep 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Most realized cap numbers come from a handful of paid providers who don't show their work. Here's exactly how we compute ours from our own node — the interpolation, the known bias, and why we sometimes flag it degraded. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-institutional-custody-spain/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-institutional-custody-spain/ Tue, 15 Sep 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Spain's MiCA transitional period ended July 1, 2026. A running list of which banks and platforms hold CNMV authorization won't tell you the thing that actually matters: two very different custody businesses are hiding behind the same license. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/what-a-bitcoin-address-lookup-can-and-cant-tell-you/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/what-a-bitcoin-address-lookup-can-and-cant-tell-you/ Thu, 10 Sep 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Blockchain explorers show you the raw data. What they don't show you is how much of it you can actually trust — this does. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-holder-distribution-explained/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-holder-distribution-explained/ Tue, 08 Sep 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Nine balance cohorts, from dust to whales, computed straight from our node's UTXO set. The custody-bias caveat comes first, not as a footnote after the number. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-quantum-threat-bip-360/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-quantum-threat-bip-360/ Sat, 05 Sep 2026 04:00:00 +0000 BIP-360 was merged into the BIPs repo in February 2026 as Bitcoin's first quantum-resistant address type. It doesn't touch old coins. The proposal that does, BIP-361, is where the real fight is. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-fork-wallet-safety-guide-2026/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-fork-wallet-safety-guide-2026/ Sat, 05 Sep 2026 04:00:00 +0000 BLAKE2b (BIP-110's revived minority chain) and eCash (Paul Sztorc's drivechain hard fork) are unrelated projects running in parallel since August 2026. Here's the decision tree, not the governance recap. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-sopr-explained/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-sopr-explained/ Tue, 01 Sep 2026 04:00:00 +0000 SOPR should be a value-weighted ratio, not an average of per-output ratios — the difference changes what the number actually tells you. How we compute it from our own node, and how far back it currently reaches. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/free-onchain-bitcoin-indicators/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/free-onchain-bitcoin-indicators/ Mon, 31 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 A working map of which Bitcoin on-chain indicators are genuinely free today — not a ranking of tools — what each one measures, and exactly where the paid tier begins. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-august-2026-rally-bear-market-signals/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-august-2026-rally-bear-market-signals/ Mon, 31 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 A short squeeze, a wave of regulatory news, and $517M in single-day ETF inflows drove Bitcoin from a four-month range to $81K. We checked the move against our own Score, MVRV, Puell Multiple, and the verified bottom pattern already published on this site, no price target. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/sealed-prospective-validation/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/sealed-prospective-validation/ Sat, 29 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Train, validation and test from the 2,255-strategy tournament are all spent. The only thing still clean is what hasn't happened yet, so a daily log now runs, hash-chained and sealed on the Bitcoin chain itself. It promises no return: it promises nobody can touch it afterward. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-holders-not-selling/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-holders-not-selling/ Wed, 26 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 What Bitcoin's long-term holder supply data actually measures behind today's headline, and the three things it can't tell you no matter how the chart gets framed. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/the-multiple-testing-lottery/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/the-multiple-testing-lottery/ Mon, 24 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 The tournament tested 2,255 strategies against a bar that rises with how many you test. The lone survivor missed it by -0.525, then went from beating buy-and-hold in 3 of 4 assets to 0 of 4 in test — confirming it was indistinguishable from luck. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/fear-and-greed-index-mistake/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/fear-and-greed-index-mistake/ Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Most guides already say the fear and greed index is contrarian. The part they skip: the index itself is partly built from the same price move it's supposedly warning you about. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/capital-gains-tax-cost-of-trading-strategies/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/capital-gains-tax-cost-of-trading-strategies/ Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 In the 2,255-strategy tournament, rotating positions turned gross winners into net losers. Gold is the extreme case, but the median tax drag across champion strategies ran 19-22% of gross return. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-market-tops-and-bottoms/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-market-tops-and-bottoms/ Sun, 16 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 The valuation, sentiment and mining signals that have repeated at Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, with the exact thresholds, the verified November 2022 case, and the documented cycle extremes our own combined signal has missed. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/why-shorting-bitcoin-doesnt-pay-for-itself/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/why-shorting-bitcoin-doesnt-pay-for-itself/ Fri, 14 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 In the 2,255-strategy tournament, adding short positions beat the same strategy's long-only version in just 2 of 8 cases in validation and 3 of 8 in test. They lost on direction even on days funding paid them, not the other way around. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-bip-110-fork-replay-attack-risk/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-bip-110-fork-replay-attack-risk/ Thu, 13 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 The BIP-110 minority chain split off for real at block 961,632 and is already stuck at 2 blocks. What matters now isn't the headline, it's the replay-attack risk for anyone holding their own keys. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-capitulation-signals/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-capitulation-signals/ Tue, 11 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Hash ribbon reversals and sub-1 Puell Multiple readings get called 'generational buying opportunities' every cycle. What the on-chain data actually confirms — and doesn't — from miners, long-term holders, and sentiment. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/why-backtests-lie-real-bugs-found-before-test/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/why-backtests-lie-real-bugs-found-before-test/ Sun, 09 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Before the 2,255-strategy tournament spent its single test shot, an external auditor read the simulation engine line by line. It found 5 real bugs — two of them would have quietly invalidated the entire experiment. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-core-vs-knots-explained/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-core-vs-knots-explained/ Sat, 08 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Bitcoin Knots went from 2% to over 20% of public nodes in 2025 without splitting the chain. Here's the technical distinction (consensus vs. relay policy) that decides whether your node software choice actually matters. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bip-110-voluntary-period-ends-without-lock-in/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bip-110-voluntary-period-ends-without-lock-in/ Sat, 08 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 BIP-110's voluntary signaling period closed on August 8, 2026 at 2.53% support. What that actually means, whether it creates fork risk, and what happens next. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/good-time-to-buy-bitcoin/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/good-time-to-buy-bitcoin/ Thu, 06 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Most 'buy signal' content skips the methodology. Here's how to measure Bitcoin's relative risk yourself, with sources you can check — no price predictions. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/coldcard-hack-flight-to-exchanges/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/coldcard-hack-flight-to-exchanges/ Thu, 06 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 On July 31, 2026, sub-1 BTC transfers nearly matched the record set after FTX collapsed. Same volume, opposite direction: in 2022 people fled exchanges for self-custody. This time, a real share of the panic is flowing back into exchanges. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-trading-strategies-vs-dca-backtest/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-trading-strategies-vs-dca-backtest/ Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 A pre-registered, walk-forward backtest of 2,255 trading strategy variants across Bitcoin, Ether, gold and the S&P 500 — with real costs, real funding rates and real taxes. None cleared the bar. DCA won. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bip-110-mandatory-window-august-2026/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bip-110-mandatory-window-august-2026/ Wed, 05 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 BIP-110's voluntary signaling period closed on August 8, 2026 at 2.53% support (51 of 2,016 blocks), nowhere near the 55% threshold. We measured it block by block off our own node. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bip-110-delayed-signaling-math/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bip-110-delayed-signaling-math/ Tue, 04 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 BIP-110's activation was postponed indefinitely, citing the Coldcard entropy incident. The signaling numbers already made 55% lock-in mathematically unreachable before that announcement. Chronology, block-by-block arithmetic, and what node operators should do now. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/coldcard-hack-laundering-offer/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/coldcard-hack-laundering-offer/ Mon, 03 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 The Coldcard entropy hack now stands at 1,596 BTC confirmed (~2,055 counting the suspected wave) and at least fifteen separate attackers. We checked the on-chain laundering offer against mempool.space directly — and it's a case study in why a public address isn't the same as an identified person. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-wallet-fingerprint-bip69/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-wallet-fingerprint-bip69/ Sun, 02 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 A standard designed to remove a privacy leak turned into a signal of its own. What that says about wallet fingerprinting, which tells actually survive good address hygiene, and why our privacy audit deliberately doesn't look for them. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-cheap-or-expensive/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-cheap-or-expensive/ Sat, 01 Aug 2026 04:00:00 +0000 A fast, no-hype way to check whether Bitcoin is historically cheap or expensive right now: MVRV, the Puell Multiple, and price vs. the 200-day moving average — how they combine, and what none of them predicts. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/coldcard-entropy-flaw/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/coldcard-entropy-flaw/ Fri, 31 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 A 2021 firmware regression left some Coldcard seeds with roughly 40 bits of entropy instead of 128. What broke, which devices carry it, and why updating the firmware fixes nothing on its own. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/check-if-your-bitcoin-wallet-is-traceable/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/check-if-your-bitcoin-wallet-is-traceable/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Most explainers stop at 'Bitcoin isn't anonymous.' We built a free tool that runs the actual check against our own node, shows the exact formula behind every flag, and never asks for your private key. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-toxic-change-consolidation/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-toxic-change-consolidation/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Combining unrelated UTXOs into one transaction — what coin-control tools call consolidation — can permanently link two exchange withdrawals you never meant to connect. How the heuristic works and how to avoid it. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-address-reuse-privacy-risk/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-address-reuse-privacy-risk/ Thu, 30 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Reusing a Bitcoin address links every payment it ever receives, and the most common culprit isn't a careless user — it's an exchange assigning you a fixed deposit address. How to check whether your own wallet already fixed this. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bip-110-node-operator-playbook/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bip-110-node-operator-playbook/ Wed, 29 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 BIP-110's mandatory signaling window hits in August 2026. What actually changes for your node, your keys, and your self-custody setup — and what doesn't. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-retirement-plan/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-retirement-plan/ Thu, 16 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Spain's reduction coefficients already penalize early retirement, demographics are squeezing the system long-term, and self-custodied Bitcoin offers an alternative with no third party able to change the rules — with its own counterweight of responsibility. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/managing-your-bitcoin/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/managing-your-bitcoin/ Wed, 15 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Practical guides for holding Bitcoin in the real world: where to keep custody, what fails without a succession plan, and what tax obligations you have in Spain. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-taxes-spain/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-taxes-spain/ Wed, 15 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 What's taxable when you sell or swap Bitcoin in Spain, what Modelo 721 actually requires, and what an automated tool can — and cannot — estimate for you. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-inheritance-planning/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-inheritance-planning/ Wed, 15 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 What goes wrong without succession planning for Bitcoin, which technical options exist (redundancy, multisig, timelock), and what should — and shouldn't — go in your will. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-custody-comparison-spain/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-custody-comparison-spain/ Wed, 15 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 What Spain's move from the Bank of Spain registry to MiCA/CNMV authorization actually means if you're a resident, expat, or holder with Bitcoin exposure in Spain — plus an honest, brand-free comparison of self-custody, exchange, and institutional custody. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/nupl-bitcoin/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/nupl-bitcoin/ Mon, 13 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is mathematically the same signal as MVRV, expressed as a percentage instead of a ratio. How it's calculated, its capitulation and euphoria zones, and why counting both as separate evidence is a mistake. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/free-glassnode-alternative/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/free-glassnode-alternative/ Sun, 12 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 An honest, fast comparison for people already weighing Glassnode against CryptoQuant, Nansen, or Arkham: what NodeWitness gives away free for Bitcoin cycle analysis, what it doesn't do, and when paying is still the right call. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/where-the-score-has-failed/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/where-the-score-has-failed/ Sat, 11 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Three documented failures from auditing our own Score's track record: a distribution signal that's useless for short-term timing, cycle extremes it never flagged, and a DCA simulator with no proven edge over plain DCA — unpolished numbers, published on purpose. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/score-version-history/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/score-version-history/ Fri, 10 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 The Score's change history, with dates: what launched, what was withheld and why, what's been evaluated to improve it, and what's been adopted — so no future change goes unrecorded. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/what-is-dca-bitcoin/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/what-is-dca-bitcoin/ Thu, 09 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Bitcoin DCA in plain terms — its real advantages and limits — and how Score DCA goes further than a static DCA calculator with a live historical backtest. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/how-the-score-works/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/how-the-score-works/ Thu, 09 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 How the NodeWitness Bitcoin cycle Score combines 10 indicators into one number, why the highest-weighted input comes from our own node instead of a vendor API, what we withhold and why, and how to check the public backtest yourself. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-hodl-waves/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-hodl-waves/ Thu, 09 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 How NodeWitness calculates Bitcoin HODL waves from our own node's UTXO set every week — not licensed from a paid vendor — and how to read the age bands inside the cycle Score. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index/ Thu, 09 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Why NodeWitness reads extreme fear as an accumulation signal and extreme greed as distribution, what the index is made of, and its real limits. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/puell-multiple-bitcoin/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/puell-multiple-bitcoin/ Wed, 08 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 What the Puell Multiple measures, why Bitcoin mining economics make it work, what its red and green zones mean, and how we verify the bottom signal with hash ribbon data computed from our own node. NodeWitness https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/mvrv-ratio-bitcoin/ https://nodewitness.com/en/analysis/mvrv-ratio-bitcoin/ Wed, 08 Jul 2026 04:00:00 +0000 Where NodeWitness's MVRV figure actually comes from, how it's calculated, how to read its bottom and top zones, and the real numbers behind five straight cycles of shrinking thresholds. NodeWitness